The two-month layoff has done little to change the fortunes of Eintracht Frankfurt, who saw their Bundesliga losing run extended to five with heavy defeats against Borussia Monchengladbach and Bayern Munich.
Frankfurt shipped eight goals across those two recent defeats and their defensive frailties make them vulnerable favourites against Freiburg, who are nine points better off in the table and still have realistic ambitions of qualifying for the Europa League. We predict as tight a game as the odds suggest.
The hosts are better on their own patch – 21 of their 28 points have been collected at home – but their latest performances have illustrated a lack of confidence and only four teams have suffered more defeats (14 in 26 games) than them this season.
Portuguese ace Andre Silva, who has grabbed four goals in his last six starts, is a standout performer for Frankfurt and if Freiburg can keep him quiet they should fancy their chances of avoiding defeat.
Freiburg suffered a shock 1-0 defeat at home to lowly Werder Bremen on Saturday but it was a match they dominated. Christian Streich’s men enjoyed 63 per cent possession, forced seven shots on target to Bremen’s two and had a late goal disallowed.
Prior to that flop, Freiburg claimed a point in a 1-1 draw at Leipzig – they had another late goal ruled out – and only the league’s top six have conceded fewer than them this term.
Freiburg have also recorded score draws at Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke while they only were only beaten 1-0 on their trip to free-scoring title challengers Borussia Dortmund.
The visitors have conceded two or more in only one of their last seven league games and Streich’s well-organised men are capable of frustrating Frankfurt, who they beat 1-0 earlier in the campaign.
There have been 47 goals scored in Frankfurt’s 13 home games this term while Freiburg have kept just one clean sheet in 14 away assignments, so this may be a game for goal backers. But it’s not quite as simple as that.
Freiburg do have a tendency to keep games tight on the road. The visitors have conceded exactly once in eight of their 14 away games and are a difficult side to break down.
Three of their five away draws have ended 1-1 and there could be some value in backing the same again for a correct score prediction, especially with Frankfurt low on confidence after suffering five straight defeats.